Charlie Munger in 2010: ‘Don’t ask Charlie Munger. Study the life and work of Lee Kuan Yew, you’re going to be flabbergasted’
Charlie Munger teaches that the market is actually quite efficient most of the time. He likens the market to a pari-mutual race track where the odds generally reflect the capabilities of the various horses.
Charlie Munger goes on to say that in spite of this situation, there are a select few people who are able to make good money betting on horses, even after the track taking 17% off the top. They do it by totally focusing on nothing but the performance of the horses and waiting – as long as it takes – until they see an anomaly where the odds are clearly in their favor. Then they bet heavily.
Warren Buffett goes on to say:
Charlie Munger and I are decided long ago that in an investment lifetime, it’s just too hard to make hundreds of smart decisions. That judgement became ever more compelling as Berkshire’s capital mushroomed and the universe of investments that could significantly affect our result shrank dramatically. Therefore, we adopted a strategy that required our being smart- and not too smart at that- only a very few times.
In a Q&A at University of Michigan in 2010, Charlie Munger who is Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Corporation and oft-cited partner of Warren Buffett, praised Lee Kuan Yew and the Singapore model in response to a question posed by a student: “If you could design a system, how would you take into consideration so that it enables rationality?”
Besides praising Singapore’s system of eradicating the drug problem, smoothing out racial tension and making the island “user-friendly”, Munger also praised Lee Kuan Yew for thwarting the Asian trend of marrying a good-looking wife with big breasts by going for someone smarter than he was.
Here’s most of the transcript of his comments on Lee Kuan Yew from the video.
<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pVcKkPflmT8?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
From 1min 02sec:
My favourite political system in terms of being adapted to its particular circumstances successfully is Singapore.
I think Singapore is the single most successful governmental system to exist in the world.
They’ve taken a small swamp from nowhere to a very credible place and doing the Lord’s work in a number of very important ways, aside from their bringing in derivatives trading, even Heaven makes mistakes. [Audience laughter]
But that doesn’t mean I want Singapore tomorrow as the United States.
But I think Singapore’s habit of stepping hard on things that will grow like cancer is the correct way to govern.
In America, we tend to wait until they are unfixable and we want to fix them.
If you want to take a problem when it’s solvable, and wait till it’s unfixable, you can argue you’re so damn foolish that you deserve the problem.
And we have a system that is pretty irresponsible in many ways.
From 4mins 16sec:
If you want to study, you take Singapore.
Terrible malaria problem, it’s a swamp. Drains are swamps. Who’s gonna care if some little fish dies?
He’s got a drug problem. He searches the world over for the right solution to the drug problem. He finds it in the United States.
Isn’t that a very interesting thing. Somebody in Singapore reading books and deciding United States was the answer to Singapore problems. He copied the military’s drug problem policy.
Anybody in Singapore would pee in a bottle instantly on demand and if they flunked would immediately go on a tough compulsory rehab.
Away went the drug problem.
Just time after time after time he made these winning decisions. He wanted the place to be prosperous.
He figured out who he wanted to come in and he made the civilisation very user-friendly to what he wanted to attract.
And it worked.
Then, Singapore was 70 percent Chinese and 30 percent Malay. Every Chinese thinks that the Chinese is superior to the Malays.
He thinks that’s terribly counterproductive, if anybody should say so, so he passes a law.
You can’t say that if you’re a Chinese in Singapore, you can say there is any superiority in the Chinese.
I think that is a very sensible law for Singapore to have.
Time after time after time he’s done his thing. His approach to marriage was interesting.
The average very successful man in the Asian culture. There’s a exceptionally good-looking woman though somewhat dumber than he is. This is the system.
Well, this guy was so smart, that he was the second-ranked school student in his high school. The student who was one-tenth of a percentage point higher was female.
So, he didn’t follow the Asian rule of marrying the beautiful woman with the big boobs — the little darling that you are.
He married this woman who was a tenth of a point higher. Who is now the prime minister of Singapore? Their son!
This is a very unusually successful man and a very unusually successful history
So I can’t answer your question, if you will make a study of the life and work of Lee Kuan Yew, you’ll find one of the most interesting and instructive political stories written in the history of mankind.
This is better than Athens, this is an unbelievable history. And you’ll learn a lot that will be useful in your own life.
So, my answer to you is: Don’t ask Charlie Munger. Study the life and work of Lee Kuan Yew, you’re going to be flabbergasted.
http://mothership.sg/.../charlie-munger-in-2010-dont-ask.../
Larry Foley and Mangocharlie
118 deg 1.8km off Sultan Shoal
118 deg 1.8km off Sultan Shoal
Monday, April 6, 2015
Friday, February 6, 2015
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Everything you do is based on the choices you make. It’s not your parents, your past relationships, your job, the economy, the weather, an argument, or your age that is to blame. You and only you are responsible for every decision and choice you make, period. — Brenda Slavin, Life Coach and Creator of Elements of Your Life
Saturday, November 2, 2013
Don't waste our time trying to please and impress people around us.
Don't waste our time trying to please and impress people around us. This isn't an excuse to be an inconsiderate jerk, but we must put a high value on our time. Learn to say no to people who don't show interest and respect us.
Helping other people is great but it is better to focus on serving the greatest good than simply appealing to the whims and fancy of our friends and family. Don't waste our energies trying to fit other expectations. Set our own dreams, standards and ambitious and make it our highest priority.
Altruism is an illusion but it's not selfish to love ourselves, take care of ourselves and make our happiness a top priority.
Saturday, September 7, 2013
HS Chan Selection - Larry Foley Selection -Media Selection and Craig Brannan Seletion for Sunday 8th September 2013
HS Chan Selection
Singapore Sunday 8 September
Race 1
1) Bally Boy
6) Diamond On The Bay
2) Hilary
Race 2
6) Perfect Challenger *
3) Mechanic John
9) Super Voice
Race 3
5) Marcusino
2) Irish Rebel
7) Ravoux
Race 4
7) Q Nine Star
8) Lucky Strategy
3) Gene
Race 5
2) Zac Suggestion
5) Real Mean
7) My Brother
Race 6
7) Gypsy Star
4) Ninth Avenue
5) Drama Supstar
Race 7
4) Bendicion *****
1) The Rude Warrior
2) Meaisin
Race 8
3) Bigcat Rhapsody
1) South Gate
2) Yes Baba
Race 9
5) Empress Wu *
3) Bale Star
10) Empire Bay
Race 10
6) Zac Gallant
7) Fuku’s Pet
5) So Free Now
Race 11
9) Rusty Brown *
1) Royal Tudor
7) Araouni
Larry Foley Selection
race 1: class 5 (2) - 1000m (polytrack) time: 12:50 prize money: s$35000
race 2: restricted maiden (2&3yo) (weight for age) - 1200m course e (sc) (turf track) time: 13:20 prize money: s$65000
race 3: class 4 (1) - 1400m course e (sc) (turf track) time: 13:50 prize money: s$55000
race 4: initiation (horses not won a race in 2yrs prior to nomination date & have not had > 8 starts in sin / msia) (4yo's & below) (weight for age) - 1100m (polytrack) time: 14:20 prize money: s$65000
race 5: kranji stakes d (4yo's & below) (set weights) - 1200m course e (sc) (turf track) time: 14:55 prize money: s$35000
race 6: class 5 - 1700m (polytrack) time: 15:25 prize money: s$35000
race 7: class 3 - 1600m course e (sc) (turf track) time: 15:55 prize money: s$75000
race 8: class 4 - 2000m course e (sc) (turf track) time: 16:25 prize money: s$55000
race 9: kranji stakes c (set weights) - 1400m course e (sc) (turf track) time: 17:00 prize money: s$75000
race 10: class 5 (1) - 1000m (polytrack) time: 17:30 prize money: s$35000
race 11: class 4 (2) - 1400m course e (sc) (turf track) time: 18:00 prize money: s$55000
Media Selection
| RACE 1 | Overall | |
| Ranking | ||
| 1. BALLY BOY | 1st | |
| 2. HILARY | 3rd | |
| 3. CALIFORNIA KID | 2nd | |
| 6. DIAMOND ON THE BAY | 4th | |
| 7. SAMURAI KID | ||
| RACE 2 | Overall | |
| Ranking | ||
| 1. SUBURBAN SECRET | ||
| 2. LET IT ROCK | ||
| 3. MECHANIC JOHN | 2nd | |
| 6. PERFECT CHALLENGER | 1st | |
| 7. ROOM FOR EXCUSE | 3rd | |
| 8. STRAIGHTTOTHEPOINT | 3rd | |
| 9. SUPER VOICE | ||
| RACE 3 | Overall | |
| Ranking | ||
| 1. XIN TREASURE | 4th | |
| 2. IRISH REBEL | 2nd | |
| 4. MR ARMSTRONG | ||
| 5. MARCUSINO | 1st | |
| 6. GOLD RUN | 3rd | |
| 7. RAVOUX | ||
| 8. HOPKINS | ||
| 9. LEAVE ME ALONE | ||
| 11. EXCUSEZ MOI | ||
| RACE 4 | Overall | |
| Ranking | ||
| 1. GANGNAM STYLE | ||
| 2. BIG HEART | ||
| 4. RETROSPECT | 4th | |
| 5. NAOMI | 2nd | |
| 7. Q NINE STAR | 3rd | |
| 8. LUCKY STRATEGY | 1st | |
| RACE 5 | Overall | |
| Ranking | ||
| 1. PERFECT PLAN | ||
| 2. ZAC SUGGESTION | 2nd | |
| 3. DRAGON NINETYNINE | ||
| 4. MY TRICIA | 4th | |
| 5. REAL MEAN | 3rd | |
| 7. MY BROTHER | 1st | |
| RACE 6 | Overall | |
| Ranking | ||
| 1. CASINO KING | ||
| 2. SAINT VALLEY | ||
| 3. BUZET | 3rd | |
| 4. NINTH AVENUE | 2nd | |
| 5. DRAMA SUPERSTAR | 3rd | |
| 7. GYPSY STAR | 1st | |
| 11. TRIPLE GOALS | ||
| RACE 7 | Overall | |
| Ranking | ||
| 1. THE RUDE WARRIOR | 2nd | |
| 2. MEAISIN | 4th | |
| 4. BENDICION | 1st | |
| 5. DON PLATENSE | ||
| 6. ULTIMATE WARRIOR | ||
| 8. TIGER MASTER | 3rd | |
| 9. GUIDED LIGHT | ||
| RACE 8 | Overall | |
| Ranking | ||
| 1. SOUTH GATE | 1st | |
| 2. YES BABA | 2nd | |
| 3. BIGCAT RHAPSODY | 2nd | |
| 4. LION BAROWS | 3rd | |
| 6. MY DANCING DUEL | ||
| 7. DANGER ZONE | ||
| 9. GIVE ME STRENGTH | ||
| RACE 9 | Overall | |
| Ranking | ||
| 1. FREEZEMASTER | ||
| 3. BALE STAR | 3rd | |
| 5. EMPRESS WU | 1st | |
| 7. GOLD RUTILE | 2nd | |
| 8. SULMONA | ||
| 10. EMPIRE BAY | 4th | |
| RACE 10 | Overall | |
| Ranking | ||
| 1. FANTASTIC BOY | ||
| 2. GOOD BOSS | 2nd | |
| 3. SARONG | 4th | |
| 5. SO FREE NOW | ||
| 6. ZAC GALLANT | 1st | |
| 7. FUKU'S PET | 3rd | |
| 8. FONG SU | ||
| RACE 11 | Overall | |
| Ranking | ||
| 1. ROYAL TUDOR | 2nd | |
| 3. IRISH LIGHTNING | 4th | |
| 4. ORAKEI KORAKO | 3rd | |
| 5. AGENAIS | ||
| 7. ARAPUNI | ||
| 8. DAZZLING DAME | ||
| 9. RUSTY BROWN | 1st | |
Craig Brannan Selection
RACE 1
Even race to kick things off. Bally Boy (1) has been racing in improved form since the blinkers came on. Looks cherry-ripe for his breakthrough win. Another horse who seems to have made major headway since donning blinkers is Diamond On The Bay (6). The Irish-bred showed plenty of pace to lead before fading late last time out, but has drawn awkwardly this time. Place claims. California Kid (3) can mix his form but his last-start closing third suggests the removal of pacifiers may have turned his form around. Keep safe. Hilary (2) made winning look easy despite jumping from a wide gate at her last start. This looks tougher, but she should still be in with a chance.
RACE 2
Race with little exposed form. Going with Perfect Challenger (6) who ran a much better race second-up. First test on turf. Nicely drawn and should make presence felt. Mechanic John (3) has trialled fairly, but the appointment of Joao Moreira points to his chances. Watch for stable confidence. Suburban Secret (1) showed slight signs of improvement at his last run. Back on turf. Outside chance. Newcomer Room For Excuse (7) ran second in a barrier trial on August 13. Probably needs the run and wide gate does not help, but can still sneak in for a place with some luck.
RACE 3
Pacifiers go on Irish Rebel (2) following his disastrous last outing when he blundered at the start and overraced the whole way. Has stacks of ability and can redeem himself. Xin Treasure (1) has had two runs under the belt since resuming from a long spell. He was not disgraced at both outings and would not surprise if he makes the board. Ravoux (7) ran on for third last time out, but he can be a bit of an in-and-out performer. Worth a thought for a place at best. Gold Run (6) seems to handle turf better. Good draw. Don’t overlook him.
RACE 4
On mileage, the nod goes to Q Nine Star (7). Goes much better over Polytrack. Has an experience edge - with Gangnam Style - over the rest and should be fighting out the finish. Gene (3) has trialled well and must be included in your calculations. Bears watching. Much improvement is expected from Lucky Strategy (8) after his meritorious third on debut a month ago. Has drawn an alley and will be hard to beat. In two runs in July, New Zealand-bred mare Naomi (5) has not been beaten too far behind. Freshened up and commands respect in this.
RACE 5
Though he did not win at his last outing, Real Mean (5) is improving with each run. Well drawn in barrier No 3. Will get into a good trail before asserting his authority in home straight. Zac Suggestion (2) was tipped out after he scored his maiden win last June. Resuming and looks ready to run another good race. On his last-start maiden win, My Tricia (4) is worth considering, but he is meeting slightly stronger opposition this time. Place chance still decent. Perfect Plan (1) had no excuses at his last run. The removal of blinkers and first switch to turf can see him bounce back to form.
RACE 6
No abundance of talent here. After two thirds in a row, Gypsy Star (7) should be thereabouts again. Drawn off the track, but she gets back and will be charging home late. Ninth Avenue (4) is going for a three in a row, but may find this bunch a stronger proposition. Can still sneak into the minors. Drama Superstar (5) scored a convincing win at her last start. Has drawn an alley this time round and can be dangerous. Rockety Cat (10) let down well without finishing too far behind the winner at his recent starts. Blinkers off, but has drawn a bad number.
RACE 7
Gutsy customer Meaisin (2) has been a model of consistency. Handles both turf and Polytrack. Trip suits and he should be in the firing line for a long way, especially from his good gate. Bendicion (4) is a bonny filly resuming from a three-month spell and is the class material here. Go close. The Rude Warrior (1) is back in form and cannot be overlooked in this. Not the easiest horse to ride, but with Joao Moreira taking over the reins, he must be considered. Ultimate Warrior (6) seems to be getting better with age. He scored a nice win last time out. Up in grade, but his good form can see him stick to the task.
RACE 8
Last-start maiden winner Big Cat Rhapsody (3) is a lot more switched on with the blinkers. The longer the better. Will be in the hunt again. My Dancing Duel (6) lost no marks behind Bigcat Rhapsody at his last start. Will relish the step-up to 2000m. Faces stiff task, but is not without a place chance. Yes Baba (2) is tackling 10 furlongs for the first time. The way he kept hitting the line at his last-start victory does suggest he can see out the trip. South Gate (1) is in his element in this lot. Won’t be far behind when the whips are cracking.
RACE 9
Lightly-raced mare Gold Rutile (7) can turn the tables on her last-start nemesis Empress Wu (5). With apprentice jockey Tengku Rehaizat’s two-kilo claim, Gold Rutile is only one pound better off, but she is stepping up over 1400m,which should suit her better. Empress Wu is in rattling form as well and will not go down without a fight. Bale Star (3) keeps improving all the time, though he does not normally win by big margins. Will break from a wide alley, but still represents a solid place chance. There is a win shortly for bold frontrunner Lamborghini Flame (6), but he may have to settle for a place here. Will take up the running from marble one, but whether he can go all the way is a different matter.
RACE 10
Not many standouts here. Sarong (3) is not a bad mare. She finished only two lengths off Premier Grade at her last start when first-up from a break. Will strip fitter and can be followed. Zac Gallant (6) is still a maiden after eight starts. Barring one run at his last four starts, he has not been beaten by a long way. Pacifiers on. Can surprise. It has been a while since Fong Su (8) has drawn an alley. Not the worst here and can finish in the money. Good Boss (2) is resuming after nearly a year. Has pace but from his wide alley, he will probably drop back. Just a place chance.
RACE 11
After turning in three encouraging runs from a long rest, Royal Tudor (1) should be all primed to bounce back to winning ways in the last race. First test over 1400m and turf should not be an issue. Big say. Rusty Brown (9) is up in grade but should be able to hold his own. Step-up to 1400m is up his alley. Orakei Korako (4) was a shade disappointing second-up. Rise in journey should suit better. Fair chance. Spinning Success (10) is dropping back in trip. Blinkers on. Has drawn an alley and can fill a minor spot.
Sunday, September 1, 2013
Fooling Around
I don't fool myself into believing I have a winning system, best method, tactic, technique, theory, strategy or secret formula!! Lady Luck, fate, lot, chance, fortune, Law of Average, and Randomness always trick me into thinking I have that when I don't.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)